Nigeria in May exported 1.89 million barrels
per day, contrary to fears that crude export has dropped to as low as 1.3
million barrel per day. Data released by Windward, a maritime intelligence firm
showed that Nigeria’s crude oil exports in May dropped by just 62,000 barrels
per day (bpd) from April, with exports still reaching 1.89 million bpd. Bonga oil
field ...alleged source of the massive spill Windward tracks all exports coming
from Nigeria including crude oil, condensates and ship-to-ship transfers, so
its figures are nearly always higher than estimates of crude oil production
alone.
But its figures indicate
that Nigeria exported between 300,000-500,0000 bpd more than what OPEC and
other agencies thought it had produced in May. Repeated militant attacks
Nigeria, according to the firm, kept exporting crude oil at a largely steady
pace in May, though below historical levels, despite repeated militant attacks
on its infrastructure that drove output down to 30-year lows and helped global
prices rise, the data showed.
The data from the maritime
intelligence firm, Windward, and Thomson Reuters revealed a far smaller drop in
exports from April to May than most in the market had suggested. It suggested
that Nigerian oil production is more resilient than many thought.
The oil industry has been
grappling with a spate of militant attacks that took out the Forcados crude oil
stream in February and affected Bonny Light, Brass River and Escravos in May,
mainly by targeting pipelines taking crude to export terminals. An accident on
the terminal exporting Qua Iboe, its largest oil stream, further knocked
production and led the International Energy Agency (IEA) to declare May
production at 30-year lows of 1.37 million bpd. But Windward showed May exports
dropping by just 62,000 barrels per day (bpd) from April, with exports still
reaching 1.89 million bpd. The figures are significant, particularly as the
government announced a 30-day ceasefire with militants yesterday that could
forestall further attacks on oil sites. “It was the gains from small fields
that offset declines from others,” said James Davis, head of crude supply at
FGE Energy. “The disruptions in the fields that were out was pretty much what
we expected. What we didn’t expect was the marginal increases in other fields.”
Reuters data showed total exports in May at roughly 1.67 million bpd, down from
1.77 million bpd in April, and also a rise in exports of grades including
Bonga, Agbami, Antan, Amenam, Okwori that helped offset the losses.
The figures remain sustantially below the
close to 2 million bpd Nigeria has exprted in the best of times. Still, they
suggest that many industry observers, for example the “secondary sources”
polled by OPEC that pegged Nigeria’s May production at around 1.4 million bpd,
were overly pessimistic about its ability to keep pumping. Trade sources noted
that some of the oil could have come from crude stored at export terminals and
on ships offshore.
But these volumes are not
typically substantial in Nieria, and most traders noted that oil kept flowing
from streams that had been repeatedly attacked, including Bonny Light and Brass
River, while the Qua Iboe outage was shorter-lived than expected.
According to Windward data,
22 million barrels exported in the last 10 days of May pushed exports closer to
par with April. Davis said the full ramifications of Nigeria’s unrest remain
unclear. The rise in Qua Iboe exports would be offset by further declines in
Bonny Light and Brass River, both of which have faced additional strikes. “The
real impact would be whether there is damage at a field level that is
significant enough to have a long term impact” Davis said.
Credit:Vanguard
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